Number of coronavirus cases in Wrexham is now higher than during the first wave of the pandemic

There are now 735.5 cases of the virus per 100,000 people.

The county has risen from 14th to second place in Wales for the rate of coronavirus cases per 100,000 people in the last week.

Positivity is 29.9 per cent as of Monday (January 4) with the rate more than doubling over the last three weeks.

Although cases now are lower than the peaks of the last few days, on a week-by-week basis they have more than doubled over the last three weeks to the highest they have ever been.

Table 1 - a summary of the weekly data for the county borough as a whole compared to other councils in North Wales since the pandemic first began in the spring

Wrexham has always been an outlier in North Wales, the update states, but now it is almost as bad as any council in Wales.

In the last week the rate per 100,000 population in the county has worsened from 14th to 2nd place in Wales and our positivity rate having worsened from 12th to 2nd, partly because there have been large reductions in cases in South Wales.

But approval of the Oxford vaccine should provide a boost to vaccination in Wrexham.

These are among the main points in the first of regular twice-weekly updates on the coronavirus situation in the borough from Wrexham Council.

The update from Lawrence Isted, Chief Officer Planning and Regulatory, reports that the virus is very widespread with the principal locations remaining households followed by outbreaks in care and nursing homes, the Maelor hospital and HMP Berwyn prison.

There are no official outbreaks elsewhere at present, but there are several clusters in workplaces.

It adds that the Level 4 Alert lockdown, which came into force on December 20, should soon begin to have an effect, as the October firebreak did, but the presence of the ‘UK’ variant and the easing of the restrictions over Christmas may have acted against this.

The Welsh Government will be reviewing the lockdown on January 7, but the update says we should expect it to be extended for at least a further three weeks.

Hotspots

These are the six hotspots in the county that have recorded more than 800 positive coronavirus cases per 100,000 people (an increase of three on December 28).

• Hermitage & Whitegate has 1,154 twice the 583 reported on December 28
• Johnstown North & Rhostyllen has 1,141 twice the 538 reported on 28th
• New Broughton & Bryn Cefn has 1,031 nearly twice the 567 reported on 28th
• Llay South & Gwersyllt East has 1,022 compared to 860 on 28th
• Wrexham West has 948, which is fewer than the 972 recorded on 28th
• Gwersyllt West & Summerhill has 928, which is fewer than the 1,266 recorded on 28th

Wrexham County Borough as a whole

The more transmissible (approximately 66%) ‘UK’ variant of Covid-19 is present in Wrexham which will have increased the rate of spread, as will the Christmas easing of the Level 4 Alert lockdown.

There are no known cases of the ‘South African’ variant, yet. As a result, all of the statistics for the seven days up to December 30 have got much worse and, with the exception of positivity, have exceeded those of the first wave, last spring. Cases per 100,000 population are 735.5 today.

Positivity (29.9% today) has more than doubled over the last three weeks. Case numbers are lower today than the peaks of the last few days, but on a week-by-week basis have also more than doubled over the last three weeks to the highest they have ever been.

The number of hospital admissions has not risen as steeply and the recent significant change from the 80-89 age cohort amongst patients being the most affected to the 30-39 age cohort has recently been reversed with the 70-79 age cohort now being the most affected, but with a rise in the 20-29 age cohort as well. The number of deaths have also not risen steeply. There is always a month’s lag between new cases and these data, so we will have to wait to see what the next few weeks bring, but neither hospital admission nor deaths have yet reached anywhere near the levels of last spring.

Schools

The college and university have been closed which will have acted as a brake on the spread of Covid-19. Students returning to the halls of residence in the next few weeks will be tested on arrival and many in both the university and the college will not be returning at all, but accessing their courses on-line.

Just before the Christmas break, the number of new cases in schools rose such that the decision was taken to move to on-line classes and, again, their closure will have acted as a brake on the spread of the virus. For at least the first week of the new term all of our schools will deliver learning on-line, though provision will be made for children of critical workers, if required. All schools have written to parents to inform them of these arrangements. It is currently proposed that all pupils will return for face-to-face learning from 11th January, but this position will be reviewed with schools this week on the basis of the data emerging from the Christmas/New Year period. Meetings between the council and the schools took place on Monday and a meeting is planned with Welsh Government officers to discuss the position on Wednesday.

Enforcing the Regulations

Multi-agency teams are trying to manage the various local occurrences, but it is a very difficult battle given that the principal setting is households. This is being managed by the IMT (Incident Management Team) which meets each Tuesday. Public Protection officers are working with NWP to enforce the lockdown regulations (especially in the ‘hot-spot’ sub-areas).

Mass Testing

Arrangements are being put in place to facilitate mass testing in schools and there is also testing in particular care homes. However, at the moment, PHW and BCUHB do not plan to undertaken wider community mass testing in any parts of the county borough. Such testing was undertaken in the summer to determine whether there was community transmission in particular parts of Wrexham town, but we now know that there is widespread community transmission so mass testing will not tell us more than we already know. Also, as we are in a lockdown, there are no additional tools available to us or Welsh Government to tackle the virus.

Mass Vaccination

Approval of the Oxford vaccine provides a further boost to vaccination in Wales as a whole and in Wrexham in particular.

The Health Board have confirmed that North Wales is receiving, and will in future continue to receive, 22% of all vaccines made available in Wales based on population size.

Locally, staff from care homes are currently receiving vaccinations through the Mass Vaccination Centre in Deeside. Staff from homes which have current diagnosed cases cannot yet access the vaccine, but as they come out of this status they will be able to do so. A pilot roll-out of the Oxford vaccine is planned for one care home in Wrexham and one in Flintshire this week with rapid roll-out to others to follow. Again, early roll-out will be limited as care homes will not receive the vaccine during an active outbreak.

As more stocks become available priority groups in the wider population in Wrexham will be targeted to receive the vaccine through the Mass Vaccination Centre in Enfys Hospital, Deeside (which became operational before Christmas) and two local centres in Wrexham (Plas Madoc and Glyndwr University), which are expected to be up and running early to mid-January.

In addition, discussions have been held with GP Cluster Leads to establish vaccination capacity across primary care from 11th January. Prioritisation is based on age with the over 80s receiving the first doses, but, simultaneously, there is an aspiration to start inviting domiciliary and other social care staff to be vaccinated.