MORE than a hundred businesses from North Wales and North West England have benefited from the insights of an expert economist on the business effects of Brexit.

Mark Berrisford-Smith, head of Economics at HSBC UK Commercial Banking, was speaking at a business finance event organised by DBF (Deeside Business Forum) at the Catrin Finch Centre, Wrexham Glyndŵr University, on Friday.

The picture Mr Berrisford-Smith painted was mixed. He said the economy had clearly slowed since 2016 but the consumer is in a better place than he or she was 18 months ago.

He said inflation of two per cent and earnings growth of nearly 3.5 per cent means most people are getting better off.

“It’s not dramatic but it’s definitely an improvement on where we were two years ago and yet people still feel uncertain,” he said.

“It’s pretty much the same picture for businesses – businesses feel uncertain. There’s that gnawing uncertainty about what Brexit brings and so investments don’t happen.

"The Bank of England believe the amount we’re spending on capital investment is probably a fifth down on where it would have been had we voted differently in the referendum.”

He explained that the motoring industry, construction companies, the retail sector, airlines and tour operators are having a difficult time.

“You’ve got bits of the economy that are doing OK and you’ve got other bits that are struggling quite badly, and that’s what you’d expect from an economy that’s growing sluggishly,” he said.

“We are growing, be glad of it, but we’re not growing the way we used to and that does mean that some parts feel the pain.”

Mr Berrisford-Smith said the pain was now being felt by companies that are embedded into European supply chains.

They are forced to react by ramping their stock levels up which means they are taking a working capital hit at a cost to their bottom line.

Although European tariffs are complex, outside agriculture they would be under 10 per cent, he said, which many companies can absorb except for those with tight margins.

“The really big issue, and this is a big factor in this part of the world, is farmers and agricultural exports,” he continued.

“It’s reckoned that in the beef and lamb sector a lot of the tariffs could be equivalent to 60 or 70 per cent. It’s going to be very difficult to get agricultural and dairy exports. The farming community will be extremely nervous about all of this.”

Mr Berrisford-Smith said what the two alternatives would be: “No deal Brexit means recession, not a big one like 2008 but an unpleasant 12-18 months.

"Get an orderly deal and because you lift the uncertainty you allow the economy to start growing again at the sort of pace it used to.”

DBF chair Askar Sheibani spoke about the importance of digital connectivity for the region and Neil Maguinness of Development Bank for Wales presented on funding that is available to help business to grow.

Wrexham Glyndŵr University Vice Chancellor Professor Maria Hinfelaar spoke about the latest achievements and developments at the university and DBF president the Rt Hon Lord Barry Jones PC gave a rousing address.

There was a panel discussion to close with lively debates on lots of relevant business topics.

Mr Sheibani said: “We’ve had fantastic feedback for what was another successful event for DBF. We’re proud to be able to provide a breadth of useful and insightful expert information for our businesses, and to continue to campaign on their behalf.

“Thank you to our main sponsors HSBC UK and Development Bank of Wales, and to Wrexham Glyndŵr University, Flintshire in Business, Grant Thornton and all our attendees for their ongoing support.”